Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 235.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 47¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 26

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

-$79.98

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 46.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,729

Combined PnL-$110.76

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,773

Combined PnL+$30.78

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 51.8¢	$11.0K	$11.0K	+$77.25	55% 12111-9992 (22103)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.8¢	$6.3K	$6.5K	+$203.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$126.71
scootergeneCTR	Overavg 47¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$31.5	56% 345-268 (613)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 52.9¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$18.66	50% 1012-1005 (2017)
GO goldmynameCTR	Overavg 49¢	$3.4K	$374.54	-$65.79	66% 83-42 (125)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 50¢	$290	$281.3	-$8.7	69% 4259-1919 (6178)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 49¢	$237.65	$249.77	+$12.12	61% 4513-2865 (7378)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$66.57	$64.71	-$1.86	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$38.96	$36.27	-$2.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.9¢	$27.61	$28.44	+$0.83
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$440.09	$26.29	-$4.27	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$10.2	$9.7	-$0.5	56% 6353-5083 (11436)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$10,967.37

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$77.25

Record

55%

12111-9992 (22103)

Both legs:

Under$6,320.2851.8¢+$203.96

Over$4,647.0847.8¢-$126.71

scootergeneCTR

Over

Invested

$2,961

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$31.5

Record

56%

345-268 (613)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$1,740.28

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.66

Record

50%

1012-1005 (2017)

goldmynameCTR

Over

Invested

$3,412.88

Value

$374.54

PnL

-$65.79

Record

66%

83-42 (125)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$290

Value

$281.3

PnL

-$8.7

Record

69%

4259-1919 (6178)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$237.65

Value

$249.77

PnL

+$12.12

Record

61%

4513-2865 (7378)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$66.57

Value

$64.71

PnL

-$1.86

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

Both legs:

Over$38.9649.9¢-$2.69

Under$27.6151.9¢+$0.83

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$440.09

Value

$26.29

PnL

-$4.27

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.2

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.5

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.