Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$25.4

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,497

Combined PnL+$0.3

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,180

Combined PnL-$25.71

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$0	55% 12124-10004 (22128)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Underavg 48¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$25.71	50% 1014-1005 (2019)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$13.44	$13.44	-$0	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 51¢	$15.4	$5.31	+$0.3	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$5.28	$5.28	-$0	75% 2665-901 (3566)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,373.15

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

12124-10004 (22128)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Under

Invested

$2,467.83

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$25.71

Record

50%

1014-1005 (2019)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.44

Value

$13.44

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$15.4

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$0

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.