Spread: Kings (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (60%) · Grizzlies at 54¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
5
Grizzlies 60%
$13.5K
-$132.9
61¢ → 54¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AC acorp | Grizzliesavg 61¢ | $8.3K | $8.3K | -$68.25 | 49% 569-583 (1152) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Kingsavg 39¢ | $5.2K | $5.1K | -$65.75 | 55% 12568-10337 (22905) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Grizzliesavg 60¢ | $25.74 | $28.73 | +$0.26 | 55% 15069-12329 (27398) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 36¢ | $10.01 | $10.84 | +$0.83 | 54% 257-219 (476) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Grizzliesavg 61¢ | $7.93 | $7.93 | +$0 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
Invested
$8,326.5
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$68.25
Record
49%
569-583 (1152)
Invested
$5,175.18
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$65.75
Record
55%
12568-10337 (22905)
Invested
$25.74
Value
$28.73
PnL
+$0.26
Record
55%
15069-12329 (27398)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$10.01
Value
$10.84
PnL
+$0.83
Record
54%
257-219 (476)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.93
Value
$7.93
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.