Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Kings (64%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Grizzlies (-9.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (38%) · Grizzlies at 36¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Grizzlies36¢Kings64¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$52.59

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 36¢

-25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies36%

Kings64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,417

Combined PnL-$116.5

Kings5 traders

Total Value$961.37

Total Shares1,479

Combined PnL+$63.91

Grizzlies — 38%Kings — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 51¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$74.66	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$452.08
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 45.2¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$377.42
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Grizzliesavg 48.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$120.35	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
AN Anon455	Kingsavg 60¢	$773.94	$838.24	+$64.31	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Kingsavg 52¢	$59.11	$63.08	+$3.97	46% 338-390 (728)
TA takeormake<$100	Kingsavg 66¢	$37.86	$33.65	-$4.21	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 30¢	$30.3	$31.31	+$1.01	62% 4966-3093 (8059)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 33.4¢	$22.75	$25.59	+$2.84	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Kingsavg 69¢	$21.4	$21.39	-$0.01	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
RL RLWG<$100	Kingsavg 53¢	$5.15	$5	-$0.15	51% 4547-4285 (8832)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$3,191.41

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$74.66

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Kings$1,596.7151¢+$452.08

Grizzlies$1,594.745.2¢-$377.42

justaluckydudeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,885.94

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$120.35

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

Anon455

Kings

Invested

$773.94

Value

$838.24

PnL

+$64.31

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Kings

Invested

$59.11

Value

$63.08

PnL

+$3.97

Record

46%

338-390 (728)

takeormake<$100

Kings

Invested

$37.86

Value

$33.65

PnL

-$4.21

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$30.3

Value

$31.31

PnL

+$1.01

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$22.75

Value

$25.59

PnL

+$2.84

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Kings

Invested

$21.4

Value

$21.39

PnL

-$0.01

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

RLWG<$100

Kings

Invested

$5.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

4547-4285 (8832)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.