Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Kings (57%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (50%) · Grizzlies at 43¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
6
Grizzlies 50%
1 arb excluded
$9.7K
-$968.29
44.7¢ → 43¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Grizzliesavg 45.7¢ | $4.6K | $3.9K | -$670.95 | 55% 12853-10588 (23441) |
JU justaluckydude | Kingsavg 54.9¢ | $3.9K | $3.6K | -$271.61 | 52% 7299-6610 (13909) |
AN Anon455CTR | Grizzliesavg 40.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$27.35 | 56% 2221-1759 (3980) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Kingsavg 51.3¢ | $763.05 | $769.53 | +$6.48 | 46% 338-390 (728) |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 51.3¢ | $506.51 | $503.41 | -$3.1 | |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 47.2¢ | $256.54 | $266.11 | +$9.57 | |
TA takeormake | Kingsavg 61¢ | $234.85 | $232.92 | -$1.93 | 55% 3160-2554 (5714) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 41.3¢ | $43.05 | $46.3 | +$3.25 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Kingsavg 55¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 51% 4547-4285 (8832) |
Invested
$4,583.28
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$670.95
Record
55%
12853-10588 (23441)
Invested
$3,918.16
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$271.61
Record
52%
7299-6610 (13909)
Invested
$1,095.65
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$27.35
Record
56%
2221-1759 (3980)
Invested
$763.05
Value
$769.53
PnL
+$6.48
Record
46%
338-390 (728)
Both legs:
Invested
$234.85
Value
$232.92
PnL
-$1.93
Record
55%
3160-2554 (5714)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$43.05
Value
$46.3
PnL
+$3.25
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
51%
4547-4285 (8832)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.