Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Grizzlies (52%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (86%) · Kings at 48¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 26

Grizzlies52¢Kings48¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$57.22

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 48¢

-14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies52%

Kings48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings6 traders

Total Value$546

Total Shares1,070

Combined PnL-$51.93

Grizzlies1 trader

Total Value$122.28

Total Shares224

Combined PnL-$5.29

Kings — 86%Grizzlies — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 48.4¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$56.98	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 48.4¢	$3.0K	$3.6K	+$534.91
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 52.8¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$477.93
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Kingsavg 49.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$45.21	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 49.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$48.58
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 44.5¢	$558.97	$652.75	+$93.78
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Kingsavg 52.1¢	$258.37	$272.72	+$14.35	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
RN1CTR	Kingsavg 63¢	$157.5	$137.5	-$20	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$127.57	$122.28	-$5.29	46% 338-390 (728)
TA takeormakeCTR	Kingsavg 55.5¢	$124.8	$90	-$34.8	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kingsavg 54¢	$37.58	$27.86	-$9.72	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Kingsavg 63¢	$16.83	$15.17	-$1.66	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Kingsavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.75	-$0.1	51% 4547-4285 (8832)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$5,599.46

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$56.98

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$3,028.148.4¢+$534.91

Kings$2,571.3652.8¢-$477.93

Anon455ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$1,963.27

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$45.21

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

Both legs:

Kings$1,404.3149.7¢-$48.58

Grizzlies$558.9744.5¢+$93.78

justaluckydudeCTR

Kings

Invested

$258.37

Value

$272.72

PnL

+$14.35

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

RN1CTR

Kings

Invested

$157.5

Value

$137.5

PnL

-$20

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Grizzlies

Invested

$127.57

Value

$122.28

PnL

-$5.29

Record

46%

338-390 (728)

takeormakeCTR

Kings

Invested

$124.8

Value

$90

PnL

-$34.8

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$37.58

Value

$27.86

PnL

-$9.72

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$16.83

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$1.66

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

RLWGCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

4547-4285 (8832)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.