Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (50%) · Grizzlies at 56¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 26

Grizzlies56¢Kings44¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$15.89

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 55.5¢

+37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 6 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies56%

Kings45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$288.48

Total Shares616

Combined PnL+$3.42

Kings3 traders

Total Value$325.46

Total Shares630

Combined PnL-$19.3

Grizzlies — 50%Kings — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 53.5¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	-$42.54	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 53.5¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$98.56
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.3¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$141.1
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 53.9¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$58.4	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 53.9¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$133.35
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 44.3¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$191.75
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 61¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$62.42	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 61¢	$610	$610	+$0
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 44.3¢	$519.05	$456.63	-$62.42
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kingsavg 46.1¢	$278.42	$275.31	-$3.11	46% 338-390 (728)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 46.1¢	$181.23	$172.93	-$8.3
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 53.2¢	$97.19	$102.38	+$5.19
SU SunlineTicker	Grizzliesavg 40.3¢	$220.75	$241.2	+$4.01	67% 3627-1751 (5378)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Kingsavg 60¢	$215.4	$201.04	-$14.36	49% 3350-3443 (6793)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Kingsavg 46¢	$92.03	$89.98	-$2.05	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Grizzliesavg 41.4¢	$41.41	$42.28	-$0.79	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kingsavg 46.2¢	$37.33	$34.44	-$2.89	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
RL RLWG<$100	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$4.8	$5	+$0.2	51% 4547-4285 (8832)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$5,522.31

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$42.54

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$3,443.4553.5¢+$98.56

Kings$2,078.8648.3¢-$141.1

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$3,325.67

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$58.4

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$1,836.8553.9¢-$133.35

Kings$1,488.8244.3¢+$191.75

Anon455ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,129.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$62.42

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$61061¢+$0

Kings$519.0544.3¢-$62.42

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$278.42

Value

$275.31

PnL

-$3.11

Record

46%

338-390 (728)

Both legs:

Kings$181.2346.1¢-$8.3

Grizzlies$97.1953.2¢+$5.19

SunlineTicker

Grizzlies

Invested

$220.75

Value

$241.2

PnL

+$4.01

Record

67%

3627-1751 (5378)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Kings

Invested

$215.4

Value

$201.04

PnL

-$14.36

Record

49%

3350-3443 (6793)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$92.03

Value

$89.98

PnL

-$2.05

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$41.41

Value

$42.28

PnL

-$0.79

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$37.33

Value

$34.44

PnL

-$2.89

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

RLWG<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$4.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

4547-4285 (8832)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 6 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.