Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Grizzlies (75%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (57%) · Kings at 26¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 26

Grizzlies75¢Kings25¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$282.4

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 25.5¢

-47% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies75%

Kings26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,835

Combined PnL-$471.43

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,067

Combined PnL+$189.03

Kings — 57%Grizzlies — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$4.4K	$4.8K	+$351.21	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$3.1K	$3.8K	+$616.26
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 49.4¢	$1.3K	$992.98	-$265.05
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kingsavg 48.9¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$448.31	46% 338-390 (728)
DO DolphinBaller	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$200	46% 70-83 (153)
AN Anon455	Grizzliesavg 76¢	$792.3	$779.31	-$13	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Kingsavg 42¢	$78.41	$78.41	-$1.87	67% 3627-1751 (5378)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Kingsavg 41.4¢	$73.55	$75.93	+$2.38	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 41.4¢	$47.15	$47.88	+$0.73
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 57.4¢	$26.4	$28.05	+$1.65
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Grizzliesavg 58¢	$39.15	$41.18	+$2.02	49% 3350-3443 (6793)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kingsavg 44.5¢	$45.03	$23.78	-$21.25	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Kingsavg 50¢	$5	$5	+$0	51% 4547-4285 (8832)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$4,404.41

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$351.21

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$3,146.3751¢+$616.26

Kings$1,258.0449.4¢-$265.05

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kings

Invested

$2,221.4

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$448.31

Record

46%

338-390 (728)

DolphinBaller

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$200

Record

46%

70-83 (153)

Anon455

Grizzlies

Invested

$792.3

Value

$779.31

PnL

-$13

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$78.41

Value

$78.41

PnL

-$1.87

Record

67%

3627-1751 (5378)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$73.55

Value

$75.93

PnL

+$2.38

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

Both legs:

Kings$47.1541.4¢+$0.73

Grizzlies$26.457.4¢+$1.65

NatoAlfista<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$39.15

Value

$41.18

PnL

+$2.02

Record

49%

3350-3443 (6793)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$45.03

Value

$23.78

PnL

-$21.25

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

RLWGCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

4547-4285 (8832)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.