Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (83%) · Kings at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
6
Kings 83%
$1.2K
-$74.73
69.3¢ → 79.5¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Grizzliesavg 23¢ | $459.99 | $449.99 | -$10 | 46% 70-83 (153) |
JU justaluckydude | Kingsavg 67.9¢ | $421.62 | $357.08 | -$64.54 | 52% 7299-6610 (13909) |
TA takeormake | Kingsavg 72¢ | $182.29 | $158.2 | -$24.09 | 55% 3160-2554 (5714) |
SE seeeeeeb<$100 | Kingsavg 68¢ | $84.32 | $96.1 | +$11.78 | 49% 365-385 (750) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Kingsavg 68¢ | $84.32 | $96.1 | +$11.78 | 71% 18600-7590 (26190) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Kingsavg 77¢ | $52.36 | $52.7 | +$0.34 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
Invested
$459.99
Value
$449.99
PnL
-$10
Record
46%
70-83 (153)
Invested
$421.62
Value
$357.08
PnL
-$64.54
Record
52%
7299-6610 (13909)
Invested
$182.29
Value
$158.2
PnL
-$24.09
Record
55%
3160-2554 (5714)
Invested
$84.32
Value
$96.1
PnL
+$11.78
Record
49%
365-385 (750)
Invested
$84.32
Value
$96.1
PnL
+$11.78
Record
71%
18600-7590 (26190)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$52.36
Value
$52.7
PnL
+$0.34
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.