Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (63%) · Kings at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
8
Kings 63%
$2.0K
-$390.39
57.6¢ → 71.5¢
+24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Kingsavg 57.1¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$397.24 | 55% 12853-10588 (23441) |
JU justaluckydude | Kingsavg 60.7¢ | $278.77 | $273.34 | -$5.43 | 52% 7299-6610 (13909) |
 HRTrading | Kingsavg 58¢ | $117.92 | $131.08 | +$13.16 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Kingsavg 70.4¢ | $19.72 | $20.3 | +$0.58 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 43¢ | $7.31 | $6.8 | -$0.51 | 49% 365-385 (750) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 43¢ | $7.31 | $6.8 | -$0.51 | 71% 18600-7590 (26190) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Kingsavg 63¢ | $3.28 | $3.12 | -$0.16 | 55% 3160-2554 (5714) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 43¢ | $0.78 | $0.5 | -$0.28 | 46% 338-390 (728) |
Invested
$1,955.54
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$397.24
Record
55%
12853-10588 (23441)
Invested
$278.77
Value
$273.34
PnL
-$5.43
Record
52%
7299-6610 (13909)
HRTradingInvested
$117.92
Value
$131.08
PnL
+$13.16
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
Invested
$19.72
Value
$20.3
PnL
+$0.58
Record
56%
21078-16865 (37943)
Invested
$7.31
Value
$6.8
PnL
-$0.51
Record
49%
365-385 (750)
Invested
$7.31
Value
$6.8
PnL
-$0.51
Record
71%
18600-7590 (26190)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.12
PnL
-$0.16
Record
55%
3160-2554 (5714)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$0.28
Record
46%
338-390 (728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.