Grizzlies vs. Kings
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (60%) · Grizzlies at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
5
Grizzlies 60%
$2.4K
$66.06
61.3¢ → 63.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO DolphinBaller | Grizzliesavg 60.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$63.97 | 45% 60-74 (134) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Grizzliesavg 63¢ | $453.6 | $453.6 | +$3.6 | 52% 295-270 (565) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Kingsavg 37¢ | $666 | $249.33 | -$3.42 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Kingsavg 36¢ | $106.02 | $108.96 | +$1.47 | 69% 4202-1899 (6101) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Grizzliesavg 62.4¢ | $45.42 | $45.85 | +$0.43 | 54% 13658-11474 (25132) |
Invested
$1,446.81
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$63.97
Record
45%
60-74 (134)
Invested
$453.6
Value
$453.6
PnL
+$3.6
Record
52%
295-270 (565)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$666
Value
$249.33
PnL
-$3.42
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$106.02
Value
$108.96
PnL
+$1.47
Record
69%
4202-1899 (6101)
Invested
$45.42
Value
$45.85
PnL
+$0.43
Record
54%
13658-11474 (25132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.