Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 261.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 60¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$17.9K
$2.0K
46.1¢ → 60¢
+30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 47¢ | $11.2K | $12.9K | +$1.7K | 47% 327-376 (703) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Overavg 47.5¢ | $2.5K | $2.1K | -$396.61 | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.5¢ | $2.0K | $1.5K | -$432.28 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 59.2¢ | $557.82 | $593.5 | +$35.68 | |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 37.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.7K | +$565.93 | 56% 2094-1661 (3755) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 45.5¢ | $1.1K | $726.45 | -$338.85 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
NA NatoAlfista | Underavg 49¢ | $240.1 | $230.64 | -$9.46 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 51.7¢ | $136.75 | $155.5 | +$18.75 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 6¢ | $2.59 | $22.82 | +$20.24 | 55% 9244-7582 (16826) |
Invested
$11,199.36
Value
$12.9K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
47%
327-376 (703)
Invested
$2,513.8
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$396.61
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,158.49
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$565.93
Record
56%
2094-1661 (3755)
Invested
$1,065.3
Value
$726.45
PnL
-$338.85
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Invested
$240.1
Value
$230.64
PnL
-$9.46
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
HRTradingInvested
$136.75
Value
$155.5
PnL
+$18.75
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$22.82
PnL
+$20.24
Record
55%
9244-7582 (16826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.