Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 259.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 55¢ · $29K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
2 arb excluded
$29.4K
$162.26
51.8¢ → 55¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 47¢ | $7.5K | $9.6K | +$2.1K | 47% 327-376 (703) |
 NooseracCTR | Underavg 53¢ | $9.0K | $8.7K | -$253.98 | 52% 5325-4901 (10226) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 57.5¢ | $8.8K | $7.2K | $-1.6K | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Underavg 39.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$209.18 | 56% 2094-1661 (3755) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 39.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$89.75 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47¢ | $534.61 | $654.05 | +$119.43 | |
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR | Underavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$89.13 | 43% 237-313 (550) |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 54.6¢ | $455.59 | $450.09 | -$5.51 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
US User7429 | Overavg 48¢ | $161.68 | $153.18 | -$8.5 | 58% 6149-4540 (10689) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Overavg 56.9¢ | $148.5 | $138.66 | -$9.84 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56.9¢ | $74.64 | $76.13 | +$1.48 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.6¢ | $73.86 | $62.54 | -$11.32 |
Invested
$7,452.76
Value
$9.6K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
47%
327-376 (703)
NooseracCTRInvested
$8,973.93
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$253.98
Record
52%
5325-4901 (10226)
Invested
$8,752.07
Value
$7.2K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
Invested
$1,555.72
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$209.18
Record
56%
2094-1661 (3755)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,544.92
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$89.13
Record
43%
237-313 (550)
Invested
$455.59
Value
$450.09
PnL
-$5.51
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Invested
$161.68
Value
$153.18
PnL
-$8.5
Record
58%
6149-4540 (10689)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$148.5
Value
$138.66
PnL
-$9.84
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.