Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 257.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 66¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$152.84

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 66¢

+27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,795

Combined PnL+$261.19

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,666

Combined PnL-$108.35

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$57.51	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
NooseracCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$48.78	52% 5325-4901 (10226)
SA SadSquid54333	Overavg 46¢	$1.0K	$646.43	+$177.97	63% 130-76 (206)
TA takeormake	Overavg 59.6¢	$587.77	$593.25	+$5.47	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
AN Anon455	Overavg 52.8¢	$463.2	$578.96	+$115.76	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Underavg 45¢	$649.6	$577.42	-$72.18	54% 255-214 (469)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 45.3¢	$439	$397.7	-$84.95	47% 327-376 (703)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 54.9¢	$228.64	$248.24	+$19.6	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 66.8¢	$56.45	$52.97	-$3.48	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.77	$4.14	+$3.37	55% 9244-7582 (16826)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.53	+$0.02	51% 4228-4041 (8269)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$2,428.04

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$57.51

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$1,561.04

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$48.78

Record

52%

5325-4901 (10226)

SadSquid54333

Over

Invested

$1,018

Value

$646.43

PnL

+$177.97

Record

63%

130-76 (206)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$587.77

Value

$593.25

PnL

+$5.47

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$463.2

Value

$578.96

PnL

+$115.76

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Under

Invested

$649.6

Value

$577.42

PnL

-$72.18

Record

54%

255-214 (469)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$439

Value

$397.7

PnL

-$84.95

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$228.64

Value

$248.24

PnL

+$19.6

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$56.45

Value

$52.97

PnL

-$3.48

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$0.77

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$3.37

Record

55%

9244-7582 (16826)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.