Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 255.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 75¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
2 arb excluded
$2.5K
$29.97
53.3¢ → 75¢
+41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 75%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Overavg 65.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$305.07 | 56% 2094-1661 (3755) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 22¢ | $660 | $930 | +$270 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 65.7¢ | $689 | $724.07 | +$35.07 | |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Overavg 68.1¢ | $532.61 | $474.08 | -$58.53 | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 68.1¢ | $276.97 | $264.43 | -$12.54 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 42.7¢ | $255.64 | $209.65 | -$45.99 | |
SA SadSquid54333 | Overavg 55¢ | $280.05 | $194.63 | +$40.61 | 63% 130-76 (206) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $288.23 | $87.91 | -$41.79 | 47% 327-376 (703) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $42.3 | $56.5 | +$14.19 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $26.28 | $27.18 | +$0.9 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $4.24 | $20.3 | +$16.06 | 55% 9244-7582 (16826) |
Invested
$1,349
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$305.07
Record
56%
2094-1661 (3755)
Both legs:
Invested
$532.61
Value
$474.08
PnL
-$58.53
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
Both legs:
Invested
$280.05
Value
$194.63
PnL
+$40.61
Record
63%
130-76 (206)
Invested
$288.23
Value
$87.91
PnL
-$41.79
Record
47%
327-376 (703)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$42.3
Value
$56.5
PnL
+$14.19
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
Invested
$26.28
Value
$27.18
PnL
+$0.9
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$20.3
PnL
+$16.06
Record
55%
9244-7582 (16826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.