Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 87¢ · $938 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 100%
$938.27
$522.12
46.1¢ → 87¢
+89% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 43.5¢ | $363.41 | $890.88 | +$527.47 | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 98.7¢ | $50.39 | $44.54 | -$5.85 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.85 | +$0.5 | 51% 4228-4041 (8269) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.