Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 99¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

$921.26

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 98.8¢

+106% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares17,800

Combined PnL+$8.6K

Under4 traders

Total Value$266.29

Total Shares16,028

Combined PnL$-7.7K

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZY Zywoo123	Overavg 48¢	$8.4K	$17.3K	+$8.5K	52% 855-791 (1646)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$8.3K	$256.15	$-7.7K	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 43.9¢	$87.81	$107.43	+$17.37	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 57.3¢	$52.53	$88.01	+$35.48	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$10.3	$10	-$0.3	47% 2850-3188 (6038)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 57¢	$5.5	$5	-$0.5	51% 4228-4041 (8269)
AJ AJSV<$100	Overavg 94¢	$4.54	$4.77	+$0.22	36% 13086-22900 (35986)
VP VPenguinCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$0.08	-$2.47	44% 760-955 (1715)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$397.5	$0.07	+$0.35	58% 32399-23548 (55947)

Zywoo123

Over

Invested

$8,445.04

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

52%

855-791 (1646)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$8,269.66

Value

$256.15

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$87.81

Value

$107.43

PnL

+$17.37

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$52.53

Value

$88.01

PnL

+$35.48

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

2850-3188 (6038)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$5.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

AJSV<$100

Over

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.22

Record

36%

13086-22900 (35986)

VPenguinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.47

Record

44%

760-955 (1715)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$397.5

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.