Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 99¢ · $8K held

Over>99¢Under<1¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 99.3¢

+84% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,391

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Under2 traders

Total Value$220.04

Total Shares1,005

Combined PnL-$17.11

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53.4¢	$3.5K	$6.5K	+$2.9K	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
TA takeormake	Overavg 56.8¢	$430.72	$753.13	+$313.68	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 45¢	$235	$220	-$15	57% 4546-3373 (7919)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 59.5¢	$52.06	$73.72	+$21.66	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 53¢	$10.15	$22.91	+$12.76	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
MI mishipolis<$100	Overavg 55¢	$10	$10	+$0	47% 2850-3188 (6038)
VP VPenguinCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$0.04	-$2.11	44% 760-955 (1715)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,481.54

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$430.72

Value

$753.13

PnL

+$313.68

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$220

PnL

-$15

Record

57%

4546-3373 (7919)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$52.06

Value

$73.72

PnL

+$21.66

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$10.15

Value

$22.91

PnL

+$12.76

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

mishipolis<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2850-3188 (6038)

VPenguinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.11

Record

44%

760-955 (1715)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.