Spread: Jazz (-5.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (46%) · Lakers at 88¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 25

Jazz12¢Lakers88¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 46%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 88¢

+57% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz12%

Lakers88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares15,591

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares4,851

Combined PnL-$956.03

Lakers — 46%Jazz — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrJazz 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 56.5¢	$9.5K	$10.4K	+$908.07	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
JU justaluckydude	Lakersavg 57.5¢	$1.9K	$2.9K	+$985.87	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
TA takeormake	Lakersavg 50.6¢	$335.06	$575.94	+$240.88	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
NA NatoAlfista	Lakersavg 47¢	$203.04	$375.84	+$45.36	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Jazzavg 20.8¢	$169.99	$360.36	+$190.37	61% 4723-2962 (7685)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Jazzavg 20¢	$265.67	$266.01	+$0.34	55% 9244-7582 (16826)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Lakersavg 45¢	$126.02	$243.64	+$117.62	47% 327-376 (703)
AD adururuCTR	Jazzavg 56¢	$491.23	$140.35	-$377.19	54% 314-263 (577)
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR	Jazzavg 55.1¢	$500	$117.97	-$382.03	50% 17-17 (34)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Jazzavg 56¢	$491.23	$114.03	-$377.19	52% 239-220 (459)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Lakersavg 79¢	$16.24	$16.53	+$0.29	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jazzavg 29.9¢	$6.27	$2.73	-$3.54	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Jazzavg 55¢	$9.31	$2.52	-$6.79	50% 630-624 (1254)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$9,526.09

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$908.07

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

justaluckydude

Lakers

Invested

$1,923.41

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$985.87

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

takeormake

Lakers

Invested

$335.06

Value

$575.94

PnL

+$240.88

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

NatoAlfista

Lakers

Invested

$203.04

Value

$375.84

PnL

+$45.36

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

Forecastication2CTR

Jazz

Invested

$169.99

Value

$360.36

PnL

+$190.37

Record

61%

4723-2962 (7685)

BoomLaLaCTR

Jazz

Invested

$265.67

Value

$266.01

PnL

+$0.34

Record

55%

9244-7582 (16826)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Lakers

Invested

$126.02

Value

$243.64

PnL

+$117.62

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

adururuCTR

Jazz

Invested

$491.23

Value

$140.35

PnL

-$377.19

Record

54%

314-263 (577)

0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR

Jazz

Invested

$500

Value

$117.97

PnL

-$382.03

Record

50%

17-17 (34)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Jazz

Invested

$491.23

Value

$114.03

PnL

-$377.19

Record

52%

239-220 (459)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Lakers

Invested

$16.24

Value

$16.53

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$6.27

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$3.54

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$9.31

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$6.79

Record

50%

630-624 (1254)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrJazz 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.