Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Lakers (83%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Jazz (-3.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (29%) · Jazz at 18¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
7
Jazz 29%
$5.1K
$-1.8K
49.7¢ → 17.5¢
-65% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | Lakersavg 49.5¢ | $3.5K | $2.9K | +$1.2K | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Jazzavg 52.2¢ | $4.5K | $1.5K | $-3.0K | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Lakersavg 51¢ | $450.06 | $373.55 | +$144.12 | 47% 327-376 (703) |
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR | Jazzavg 29¢ | $303.92 | $230.56 | -$73.36 | 43% 237-313 (550) |
SH shoemanhere<$100 | Lakersavg 49¢ | $79.38 | $87.48 | +$8.1 | 63% 4914-2929 (7843) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Lakersavg 65.2¢ | $6.64 | $7.94 | +$1.3 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Lakersavg 48¢ | $4.75 | $3.8 | -$0.95 | 51% 4228-4041 (8269) |
Invested
$3,509
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Invested
$4,461.81
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
Invested
$450.06
Value
$373.55
PnL
+$144.12
Record
47%
327-376 (703)
Invested
$303.92
Value
$230.56
PnL
-$73.36
Record
43%
237-313 (550)
Invested
$79.38
Value
$87.48
PnL
+$8.1
Record
63%
4914-2929 (7843)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.64
Value
$7.94
PnL
+$1.3
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.95
Record
51%
4228-4041 (8269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.