Spread: Jazz (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (67%) · Lakers at 71¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 25

Jazz29¢Lakers71¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$117.83

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 71¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz29%

Lakers71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,319

Combined PnL+$124.8

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$19.49

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$6.97

Lakers — 67%Jazz — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jazzavg 56.5¢	$7.9K	$7.3K	-$601.36	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 44.2¢	$3.1K	$5.3K	+$2.3K
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 56.5¢	$4.8K	$2.1K	$-2.9K
AN Anon455	Lakersavg 73.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$60	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
TA takeormake	Lakersavg 67.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$80.93	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
JU justaluckydude	Lakersavg 58.1¢	$684.49	$820.55	+$136.06	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
US User7429<$100	Lakersavg 41¢	$16.77	$24.95	+$8.18	58% 6149-4540 (10689)
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100	Jazzavg 26¢	$7.8	$7.95	+$0.15	63% 4914-2929 (7843)
HRTrading<$100	Lakersavg 57.7¢	$5.22	$6.79	+$1.57	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$13.28	$6.64	-$6.92	47% 327-376 (703)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Jazzavg 59¢	$5.1	$4.9	-$0.2	51% 4228-4041 (8269)
JI jiafan<$100	Lakersavg 71¢	$4.36	$4.29	-$0.07	61% 1342-858 (2200)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$7,903.79

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$601.36

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

Both legs:

Lakers$3,055.4744.2¢+$2.3K

Jazz$4,848.3256.5¢$-2.9K

Anon455

Lakers

Invested

$1,469.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$60

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

takeormake

Lakers

Invested

$1,572.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$80.93

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

justaluckydude

Lakers

Invested

$684.49

Value

$820.55

PnL

+$136.06

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

User7429<$100

Lakers

Invested

$16.77

Value

$24.95

PnL

+$8.18

Record

58%

6149-4540 (10689)

shoemanhereCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

63%

4914-2929 (7843)

HRTrading<$100

Lakers

Invested

$5.22

Value

$6.79

PnL

+$1.57

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$13.28

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$6.92

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

RLWGCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

jiafan<$100

Lakers

Invested

$4.36

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.07

Record

61%

1342-858 (2200)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.