Spread: Lakers (-8.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (64%) · Jazz at 83¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Lakers18¢Jazz82¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$16.47

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 82.5¢

+44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers18%

Jazz83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,408

Combined PnL+$56.05

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$202.67

Total Shares725

Combined PnL-$72.52

Jazz — 64%Lakers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (6 on Lakers) disagree here.

whaleLakers 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Lakersavg 43.5¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$440	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 64.5¢	$641.96	$761.45	+$119.49
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 43.5¢	$1.2K	$656.95	-$559.49
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 53.1¢	$711.33	$776.62	+$65.29	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
SA SadSquid54333	Jazzavg 63¢	$630	$580	-$45	63% 130-76 (206)
RN1	Jazzavg 58¢	$230.62	$238.57	+$7.95	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
NA NatoAlfista	Jazzavg 60¢	$177.27	$171.36	-$5.91	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
JU justaluckydude	Jazzavg 54.2¢	$120.78	$129.34	+$8.56	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
AN Anon455CTR	Lakersavg 35.8¢	$186.35	$122.17	-$64.18	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
US User7429	Jazzavg 51.6¢	$80.44	$105.1	+$24.66	58% 6149-4540 (10689)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Lakersavg 41.2¢	$45.44	$46.34	-$10.69	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Lakersavg 16.6¢	$20.33	$22.4	+$2.06	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Lakersavg 41¢	$11.48	$11.76	+$0.28	61% 4723-2962 (7685)
RL RLWG<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.9	+$0.5	51% 4228-4041 (8269)

takeormakeARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,858.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$440

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

Both legs:

Jazz$641.9664.5¢+$119.49

Lakers$1,216.4443.5¢-$559.49

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$711.33

Value

$776.62

PnL

+$65.29

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

SadSquid54333

Jazz

Invested

$630

Value

$580

PnL

-$45

Record

63%

130-76 (206)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$230.62

Value

$238.57

PnL

+$7.95

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

NatoAlfista

Jazz

Invested

$177.27

Value

$171.36

PnL

-$5.91

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

justaluckydude

Jazz

Invested

$120.78

Value

$129.34

PnL

+$8.56

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

Anon455CTR

Lakers

Invested

$186.35

Value

$122.17

PnL

-$64.18

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

User7429

Jazz

Invested

$80.44

Value

$105.1

PnL

+$24.66

Record

58%

6149-4540 (10689)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$45.44

Value

$46.34

PnL

-$10.69

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$20.33

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$2.06

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$11.48

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$0.28

Record

61%

4723-2962 (7685)

RLWG<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (6 on Lakers) disagree here.

whaleLakers 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.