Spread: Lakers (-7.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (67%) · Jazz at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
6
Jazz 67%
$4.0K
$7.15
53.4¢ → 53.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Jazzavg 53.5¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$1.96 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Jazzavg 53¢ | $530 | $535 | +$5 | 57% 4484-3315 (7799) |
 RN1 | Jazzavg 54¢ | $135 | $133.75 | -$1.25 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 44.5¢ | $44.73 | $46.2 | +$1.46 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 46¢ | $23.92 | $23.92 | -$0 | 66% 2856-1504 (4360) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Jazzavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.67 | -$0.03 | 51% 4110-3965 (8075) |
Invested
$3,301.74
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$1.96
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$530
Value
$535
PnL
+$5
Record
57%
4484-3315 (7799)
RN1Invested
$135
Value
$133.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$44.73
Value
$46.2
PnL
+$1.46
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Invested
$23.92
Value
$23.92
PnL
-$0
Record
66%
2856-1504 (4360)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.67
PnL
-$0.03
Record
51%
4110-3965 (8075)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.