Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Lakers (51%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (63%) · Jazz at 50¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
8
Jazz 63%
1 arb excluded
$15.1K
$12.3
49.9¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Jazzavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | -$40 | 57% 1282-984 (2266) |
BA BabooouCTR | Jazzavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | -$40 | 52% 188-171 (359) |
FF ff3364 | Lakersavg 50¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$35.41 | 51% 689-662 (1351) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Lakersavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0 | 82% 3241-717 (3958) |
SU SunlineTicker | Lakersavg 48.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$51.13 | 68% 3511-1682 (5193) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Jazzavg 49¢ | $573.3 | $579.15 | +$5.85 | 48% 919-980 (1899) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Jazzavg 51.5¢ | $76.06 | $75.5 | +$0.79 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
| └ Jazz leg | Jazzavg 51.5¢ | $46.34 | $45 | +$0.01 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 48.7¢ | $29.72 | $30.5 | +$0.78 | |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 50¢ | $50.51 | $50.51 | +$0 | 54% 252-211 (463) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Jazzavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $10 | -$0.1 | 56% 6332-5072 (11404) |
Invested
$4,000
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$40
Record
57%
1282-984 (2266)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$40
Record
52%
188-171 (359)
Invested
$3,541.5
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$35.41
Record
51%
689-662 (1351)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
82%
3241-717 (3958)
Invested
$1,331.09
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$51.13
Record
68%
3511-1682 (5193)
Invested
$573.3
Value
$579.15
PnL
+$5.85
Record
48%
919-980 (1899)
Invested
$76.06
Value
$75.5
PnL
+$0.79
Record
54%
13750-11556 (25306)
Both legs:
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$50.51
Value
$50.51
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
252-211 (463)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$10.2
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.1
Record
56%
6332-5072 (11404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.