Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Lakers (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Lakers (-5.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (80%) · Jazz at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25

Lakers53¢Jazz47¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 80%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$66.4

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 47.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers53%

Jazz48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,921

Combined PnL+$66.5

Lakers1 trader

Total Value$37.41

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$0.1

Jazz — 80%Lakers — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$332.64	$353.43	+$20.79	68% 3498-1672 (5170)
HI hi774cCTR	Jazzavg 47¢	$251.92	$273.36	+$21.44	55% 4201-3385 (7586)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 47¢	$235	$255	+$20	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$118.29	$122.56	+$4.27	55% 11733-9634 (21367)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Lakersavg 52.4¢	$37.51	$37.41	-$0.1	54% 13658-11474 (25132)

SunlineTickerCTR

Jazz

Invested

$332.64

Value

$353.43

PnL

+$20.79

Record

68%

3498-1672 (5170)

hi774cCTR

Jazz

Invested

$251.92

Value

$273.36

PnL

+$21.44

Record

55%

4201-3385 (7586)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$235

Value

$255

PnL

+$20

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jazz

Invested

$118.29

Value

$122.56

PnL

+$4.27

Record

55%

11733-9634 (21367)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Lakers

Invested

$37.51

Value

$37.41

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

13658-11474 (25132)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.