Spread: Lakers (-4.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (67%) · Lakers at 57¢ · $845 held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
6
Lakers 67%
$845.29
$3.92
57.4¢ → 57.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Lakersavg 58¢ | $361.23 | $358.22 | -$3.01 | 68% 3519-1690 (5209) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Jazzavg 42¢ | $426.51 | $215.96 | +$2.53 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
NA NatoAlfista | Lakersavg 57¢ | $134.52 | $135.7 | +$1.18 | 66% 2855-1500 (4355) |
JI jiafan | Lakersavg 56¢ | $99.76 | $103.33 | +$2.67 | 61% 1314-835 (2149) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Lakersavg 56.3¢ | $24.23 | $24.94 | +$0.71 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 43¢ | $7.31 | $7.14 | -$0.17 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$361.23
Value
$358.22
PnL
-$3.01
Record
68%
3519-1690 (5209)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$426.51
Value
$215.96
PnL
+$2.53
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$134.52
Value
$135.7
PnL
+$1.18
Record
66%
2855-1500 (4355)
Invested
$99.76
Value
$103.33
PnL
+$2.67
Record
61%
1314-835 (2149)
Invested
$24.23
Value
$24.94
PnL
+$0.71
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.31
Value
$7.14
PnL
-$0.17
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.