Spread: Lakers (-3.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (43%) · Lakers at 52¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Lakers52¢Jazz48¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$238.47

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 51.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers52%

Jazz49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,964

Combined PnL+$310.47

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,637

Combined PnL-$72

Lakers — 43%Jazz — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (4 on Lakers) disagree here.

whaleLakers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLakers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 52.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$273.08	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
TA takeormake	Lakersavg 54.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$31.53	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Lakersavg 55.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$29.32	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 55.5¢	$714.33	$726.78	+$12.44
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 42.1¢	$519.08	$535.95	+$16.88
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Jazzavg 46.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$79.78	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Jazzavg 47.1¢	$589.35	$538.29	-$51.06	47% 327-376 (703)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47.1¢	$475.31	$388.83	-$86.48
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 46.9¢	$114.03	$149.46	+$35.43
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR	Jazzavg 47¢	$470	$457.61	-$12.39	43% 237-313 (550)
RN1CTR<$100	Jazzavg 40¢	$66.67	$76.27	+$9.6	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 39.3¢	$45.05	$52.48	+$10.56	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
HRTrading<$100	Lakersavg 45¢	$13.07	$18.93	+$5.86	56% 1802-1398 (3200)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$1,512.81

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$273.08

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

takeormake

Lakers

Invested

$1,345.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$31.53

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

Anon455ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,233.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$29.32

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

Both legs:

Lakers$714.3355.5¢+$12.44

Jazz$519.0842.1¢+$16.88

justaluckydudeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,104.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$79.78

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$589.35

Value

$538.29

PnL

-$51.06

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

Both legs:

Jazz$475.3147.1¢-$86.48

Lakers$114.0346.9¢+$35.43

ENDBOSSLLCCTR

Jazz

Invested

$470

Value

$457.61

PnL

-$12.39

Record

43%

237-313 (550)

RN1CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$66.67

Value

$76.27

PnL

+$9.6

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$45.05

Value

$52.48

PnL

+$10.56

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

HRTrading<$100

Lakers

Invested

$13.07

Value

$18.93

PnL

+$5.86

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (4 on Lakers) disagree here.

whaleLakers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLakers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.