Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (67%) · Lakers at 56¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25

Lakers56¢Jazz44¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 56.5¢

+22% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers56%

Jazz44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares8,383

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$89.39

Total Shares292

Combined PnL-$43.68

Lakers — 67%Jazz — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jazzavg 52.5¢	$8.3K	$10.4K	+$2.1K	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 52.5¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$153.26
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48.7¢	$5.1K	$4.8K	+$1.9K
JU justaluckydude	Lakersavg 41.4¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$851.83	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
MO mooseborzoii	Lakersavg 49.8¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$681.2	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Lakersavg 61.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$44.07	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 61.4¢	$996.82	$1.0K	+$18.19
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 35.5¢	$462.92	$488.79	+$25.87
AN Anon455	Lakersavg 60.1¢	$134.01	$134.87	+$0.86	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Jazzavg 44.8¢	$129.99	$129.56	-$0.43	47% 327-376 (703)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50¢	$56.01	$75.05	+$19.04
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 44.8¢	$73.98	$54.51	-$19.47
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jazzavg 48.1¢	$97.43	$52.72	-$44.71	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
US User7429<$100	Lakersavg 53¢	$48.6	$42.18	-$6.42	58% 6149-4540 (10689)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Jazzavg 37¢	$29.97	$33.21	+$0.41	61% 4723-2962 (7685)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 37¢	$3.12	$3.46	+$0.63	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
RL RLWG<$100	Lakersavg 56¢	$2.8	$3.3	+$0.5	51% 4228-4041 (8269)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Lakersavg 61¢	$1.56	$1.69	+$0.05	67% 3569-1722 (5291)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8,339.25

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

Both legs:

Jazz$5,431.352.5¢+$153.26

Lakers$5,114.1648.7¢+$1.9K

justaluckydude

Lakers

Invested

$2,065.96

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$851.83

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

mooseborzoii

Lakers

Invested

$2,095.02

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$681.2

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

takeormakeARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,459.74

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$44.07

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

Both legs:

Lakers$996.8261.4¢+$18.19

Jazz$462.9235.5¢+$25.87

Anon455

Lakers

Invested

$134.01

Value

$134.87

PnL

+$0.86

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$129.99

Value

$129.56

PnL

-$0.43

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

Both legs:

Lakers$56.0150¢+$19.04

Jazz$73.9844.8¢-$19.47

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$97.43

Value

$52.72

PnL

-$44.71

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

User7429<$100

Lakers

Invested

$48.6

Value

$42.18

PnL

-$6.42

Record

58%

6149-4540 (10689)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$29.97

Value

$33.21

PnL

+$0.41

Record

61%

4723-2962 (7685)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.46

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

RLWG<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.8

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

SunlineTicker<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0.05

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.