Spread: Lakers (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 65¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Lakers65¢Jazz35¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 50%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$468.57

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 64.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers65%

Jazz36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,887

Combined PnL+$509.35

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$95.14

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$40.78

Lakers — 50%Jazz — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Lakersavg 49.6¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$443.64	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
TA takeormake	Lakersavg 64.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$57.08	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
AN Anon455	Lakersavg 68¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0.48	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Jazzavg 53¢	$67.31	$48.26	-$19.05	75% 6237-2057 (8294)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jazzavg 47¢	$52.64	$42.56	-$20.16	47% 327-376 (703)
HRTrading<$100	Lakersavg 41¢	$14.35	$22.5	+$8.15	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Jazzavg 54¢	$3.43	$2.41	-$1.02	54% 5749-4921 (10670)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.9	-$0.55	51% 4228-4041 (8269)

mooseborzoii

Lakers

Invested

$1,767.74

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$443.64

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

takeormake

Lakers

Invested

$1,391.33

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$57.08

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

Anon455

Lakers

Invested

$1,010.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.48

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

torta.techCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$67.31

Value

$48.26

PnL

-$19.05

Record

75%

6237-2057 (8294)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$52.64

Value

$42.56

PnL

-$20.16

Record

47%

327-376 (703)

HRTrading<$100

Lakers

Invested

$14.35

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$8.15

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.43

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$1.02

Record

54%

5749-4921 (10670)

RLWGCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.55

Record

51%

4228-4041 (8269)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.