Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 97¢ · $2K held
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$1.8K
-$6.64
59¢ → 96.8¢
+64% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 59¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$0 | 67% 3573-1724 (5297) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 42.7¢ | $123.17 | $118.17 | -$6.44 | 58% 33251-24142 (57393) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 38.7¢ | $22.66 | $23.82 | +$1.16 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $15.05 | $14.35 | -$0.53 | 55% 14891-12190 (27081) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Underavg 62.5¢ | $14.99 | $14.15 | -$0.84 | 55% 3088-2507 (5595) |
Invested
$1,648.09
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$0
Record
67%
3573-1724 (5297)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$123.17
Value
$118.17
PnL
-$6.44
Record
58%
33251-24142 (57393)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.66
Value
$23.82
PnL
+$1.16
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
Invested
$15.05
Value
$14.35
PnL
-$0.53
Record
55%
14891-12190 (27081)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$14.15
PnL
-$0.84
Record
55%
3088-2507 (5595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.