Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 48¢ · $1K held
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$1.3K
$18.16
47.2¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$0 | 62% 3695-2244 (5939) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $176.3 | $196.8 | +$20.5 | 61% 4558-2887 (7445) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 55.5¢ | $46.6 | $43.68 | -$2.92 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47.8¢ | $147.49 | $28.08 | +$0.58 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $20.88 | $20.88 | +$0 | 66% 2856-1504 (4360) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
3695-2244 (5939)
Invested
$176.3
Value
$196.8
PnL
+$20.5
Record
61%
4558-2887 (7445)
Invested
$46.6
Value
$43.68
PnL
-$2.92
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$147.49
Value
$28.08
PnL
+$0.58
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$20.88
Value
$20.88
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
2856-1504 (4360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.