Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
2 arb excluded
$7.3K
-$89.95
46.6¢ → 47.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 49.5¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$27.31 | 55% 12111-9992 (22103) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.5¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$274.88 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.5¢ | $2.2K | $1.9K | -$247.56 | |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$63.83 | 55% 4229-3429 (7658) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $3.5K | $184.3 | -$148.88 | 66% 83-42 (125) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 53¢ | $632.5 | $133.75 | -$6.25 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 53.2¢ | $94.02 | $88.72 | -$5.31 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.2¢ | $61.74 | $53.94 | -$7.8 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.7¢ | $32.28 | $34.78 | +$2.49 | |
FF ff3364<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $86.48 | $86.48 | +$0.92 | 51% 689-662 (1351) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 50.4¢ | $23.81 | $24.35 | +$0.54 | 56% 6353-5083 (11436) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $11.28 | $11.16 | -$0.12 | 61% 4513-2865 (7378) |
Invested
$5,549.98
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$27.31
Record
55%
12111-9992 (22103)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,174.51
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$63.83
Record
55%
4229-3429 (7658)
Invested
$3,519
Value
$184.3
PnL
-$148.88
Record
66%
83-42 (125)
VeryLucky888Invested
$632.5
Value
$133.75
PnL
-$6.25
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$94.02
Value
$88.72
PnL
-$5.31
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.48
Value
$86.48
PnL
+$0.92
Record
51%
689-662 (1351)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$23.81
Value
$24.35
PnL
+$0.54
Record
56%
6353-5083 (11436)
Invested
$11.28
Value
$11.16
PnL
-$0.12
Record
61%
4513-2865 (7378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.