Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 61¢ · $525 held · ends Oct 25

Over61¢Under39¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$524.69

Combined PnL

-$2.12

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 61¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$238.56

Total Shares426

Combined PnL-$0

Under2 traders

Total Value$186.53

Total Shares424

Combined PnL-$2.12

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 56¢	$233.56	$233.56	-$0	68% 3515-1686 (5201)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 45¢	$164.67	$161.01	-$1.83	69% 4259-1919 (6178)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 44.5¢	$99.97	$99.6	-$0.37	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.5¢	$60.49	$59.84	-$0.65
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.6¢	$39.48	$39.76	+$0.28
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$26.1	$25.52	-$0.29	61% 4513-2865 (7378)
JI jiafan<$100	Overavg 56¢	$5	$5	-$0	61% 1307-831 (2138)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$233.56

Value

$233.56

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

3515-1686 (5201)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$164.67

Value

$161.01

PnL

-$1.83

Record

69%

4259-1919 (6178)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$99.97

Value

$99.6

PnL

-$0.37

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

Both legs:

Under$60.4944.5¢-$0.65

Over$39.4855.6¢+$0.28

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.1

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$0.29

Record

61%

4513-2865 (7378)

jiafan<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

1307-831 (2138)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.