Spread: Thunder (-19.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (50%) · Clippers at 91¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Thunder9¢Clippers91¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 50%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 90.5¢

+57% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder9%

Clippers91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers2 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares7,165

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares5,359

Combined PnL-$80.87

Clippers — 50%Thunder — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Clippersavg 57.5¢	$7.1K	$6.5K	+$2.4K	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
ZY Zywoo123CTR	Thunderavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$80.3	52% 857-793 (1650)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Clippersavg 59¢	$24.76	$23.77	+$0.71	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Thunderavg 19¢	$1.14	$0.57	-$0.57	56% 1895-1497 (3392)

HomeRunHazard

Clippers

Invested

$7,133.52

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

Zywoo123CTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,097.36

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$80.3

Record

52%

857-793 (1650)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Clippers

Invested

$24.76

Value

$23.77

PnL

+$0.71

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$0.57

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.