Spread: Thunder (-18.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (75%) · Clippers at 57¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
8
Clippers 75%
$18.3K
-$39.65
58.1¢ → 57¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Clippersavg 58¢ | $9.1K | $9.1K | +$7.45 | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
 NooseracCTR | Thunderavg 42¢ | $5.6K | $5.6K | -$0 | 52% 5325-4901 (10226) |
 VeryLucky888 | Clippersavg 58¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$16.64 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
 RN1 | Clippersavg 58.8¢ | $948.61 | $924.37 | -$24.24 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
NA NatoAlfista | Clippersavg 58.4¢ | $263.79 | $257.64 | -$6.15 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
 HRTradingCTR | Thunderavg 41.6¢ | $131.36 | $132.72 | +$1.36 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Clippersavg 60¢ | $60 | $57 | -$1.5 | 54% 255-214 (469) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Clippersavg 58¢ | $53.69 | $53.76 | +$0.07 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
Invested
$9,085.81
Value
$9.1K
PnL
+$7.45
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
NooseracCTRInvested
$5,608
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
5325-4901 (10226)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,342.26
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$16.64
Record
58%
32399-23548 (55947)
RN1Invested
$948.61
Value
$924.37
PnL
-$24.24
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$263.79
Value
$257.64
PnL
-$6.15
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$131.36
Value
$132.72
PnL
+$1.36
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$60
Value
$57
PnL
-$1.5
Record
54%
255-214 (469)
Invested
$53.69
Value
$53.76
PnL
+$0.07
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.