Spread: Thunder (-16.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (83%) · Thunder at 51¢ · $46K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
6
Thunder 83%
1 arb excluded
$46.4K
$186.18
49.8¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO Donkey14 | Thunderavg 50¢ | $20.0K | $20.2K | +$200 | 49% 336-347 (683) |
LE leungchihang | Thunderavg 50¢ | $10.0K | $10.1K | +$100 | 54% 37-32 (69) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Clippersavg 52¢ | $6.7K | $6.3K | -$324.28 | 55% 12316-10142 (22458) |
PP ppku6298 | Thunderavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$50 | 41% 53-76 (129) |
FF ff3364 | Thunderavg 48¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$180.08 | 51% 692-667 (1359) |
 ComingBack | Thunderavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $980.39 | -$19.61 | 62% 3703-2249 (5952) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Clippersavg 51.6¢ | $91.5 | $92.96 | +$1.46 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
| └ Clippers leg | Clippersavg 51.6¢ | $50.08 | $48.01 | -$2.06 | |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 46.5¢ | $41.42 | $44.95 | +$3.52 |
Invested
$20,000
Value
$20.2K
PnL
+$200
Record
49%
336-347 (683)
Invested
$10,000
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$100
Record
54%
37-32 (69)
Invested
$6,654.45
Value
$6.3K
PnL
-$324.28
Record
55%
12316-10142 (22458)
Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$50
Record
41%
53-76 (129)
Invested
$3,457.44
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$180.08
Record
51%
692-667 (1359)
ComingBackInvested
$1,000
Value
$980.39
PnL
-$19.61
Record
62%
3703-2249 (5952)
Invested
$91.5
Value
$92.96
PnL
+$1.46
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.