Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Thunder (53%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (83%) · Clippers at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
6
Clippers 83%
$4.2K
-$2.96
47.9¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Clippersavg 48¢ | $5.2K | $2.5K | -$24.85 | 55% 11947-9845 (21792) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Clippersavg 47¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$22.39 | 68% 3511-1682 (5193) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Clippersavg 49¢ | $490.52 | $480.51 | -$10.01 | 54% 252-211 (463) |
FO Forecastication2 | Thunderavg 47¢ | $136.16 | $147.74 | +$11.59 | 61% 4435-2821 (7256) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 49.6¢ | $49.78 | $47.71 | -$2.08 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 48¢ | $4.92 | $4.92 | +$0 | 58% 1429-1045 (2474) |
Invested
$5,243.9
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$24.85
Record
55%
11947-9845 (21792)
Invested
$1,052.51
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$22.39
Record
68%
3511-1682 (5193)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$490.52
Value
$480.51
PnL
-$10.01
Record
54%
252-211 (463)
Invested
$136.16
Value
$147.74
PnL
+$11.59
Record
61%
4435-2821 (7256)
Invested
$49.78
Value
$47.71
PnL
-$2.08
Record
54%
13750-11556 (25306)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.92
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
1429-1045 (2474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.