Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Thunder (60%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (43%) · Clippers at 41¢ · $65K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
7
Clippers 43%
$65.0K
-$512.09
41¢ → 40.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DH dhgregCTR | Clippersavg 41¢ | $49.5K | $48.9K | -$603.86 | — 5-5 (10) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Thunderavg 59.2¢ | $15.6K | $15.7K | +$73.88 | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Thunderavg 54¢ | $162.54 | $180.6 | +$19.57 | 53% 322-283 (605) |
 RN1CTR | Clippersavg 40¢ | $123.93 | $123.93 | -$0 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 45.2¢ | $39.81 | $37.92 | -$1.95 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Thunderavg 60¢ | $29.19 | $29.19 | +$0.24 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Thunderavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.97 | +$0.02 | 51% 4228-4041 (8269) |
Invested
$49,516.48
Value
$48.9K
PnL
-$603.86
Record
—
5-5 (10)
Invested
$15,623.48
Value
$15.7K
PnL
+$73.88
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
Invested
$162.54
Value
$180.6
PnL
+$19.57
Record
53%
322-283 (605)
RN1CTRInvested
$123.93
Value
$123.93
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$39.81
Value
$37.92
PnL
-$1.95
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
Invested
$29.19
Value
$29.19
PnL
+$0.24
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
4228-4041 (8269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.