Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (67%) · Clippers at 59¢ · $32K held · ended Oct 25

Thunder41¢Clippers59¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.9K

Combined PnL

-$103.87

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 59¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder41%

Clippers59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers6 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares19,632

Combined PnL-$15.48

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares19,090

Combined PnL-$88.38

Clippers — 67%Thunder — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Clippersavg 54.5¢	$10.4K	$10.2K	-$251.95	55% 12487-10261 (22748)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 54.5¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	-$58.82
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 48.2¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$193.13
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Clippersavg 54¢	$8.7K	$8.8K	+$4.9	46% 327-379 (706)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Thunderavg 46¢	$8.7K	$8.6K	-$94.65	46% 377-439 (816)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Clippersavg 43.9¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$295.45	56% 2114-1685 (3799)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 43.9¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$387.17
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 46.8¢	$736.83	$645.12	-$91.71
JU justaluckydude	Clippersavg 54.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$14.72	52% 7014-6385 (13399)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Clippersavg 55.2¢	$131.34	$133.75	+$2.42	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 55.2¢	$82.59	$80.85	-$1.73
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 42.4¢	$48.75	$52.9	+$4.15
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Clippersavg 30.2¢	$78.52	$78	-$0.52	67% 3573-1724 (5297)
FO forecastication4<$100	Clippersavg 32¢	$57.6	$54	-$3.6	48% 959-1026 (1985)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100	Thunderavg 61¢	$39.99	$45.79	+$5.81	53% 322-283 (605)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Thunderavg 53¢	$16.43	$16.9	+$0.46	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Clippersavg 37.6¢	$13.9	$12.41	-$1.49	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
RL RLWG<$100	Clippersavg 53¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	51% 4293-4089 (8382)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$10,420.62

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$251.95

Record

55%

12487-10261 (22748)

Both legs:

Clippers$6,249.8854.5¢-$58.82

Thunder$4,170.7448.2¢-$193.13

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Clippers

Invested

$8,745.85

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$4.9

Record

46%

327-379 (706)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Thunder

Invested

$8,707.86

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$94.65

Record

46%

377-439 (816)

Anon455ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$1,867.28

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$295.45

Record

56%

2114-1685 (3799)

Both legs:

Clippers$1,130.4443.9¢+$387.17

Thunder$736.8346.8¢-$91.71

justaluckydude

Clippers

Invested

$1,864.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$14.72

Record

52%

7014-6385 (13399)

takeormakeARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$131.34

Value

$133.75

PnL

+$2.42

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

Both legs:

Clippers$82.5955.2¢-$1.73

Thunder$48.7542.4¢+$4.15

SunlineTicker<$100

Clippers

Invested

$78.52

Value

$78

PnL

-$0.52

Record

67%

3573-1724 (5297)

forecastication4<$100

Clippers

Invested

$57.6

Value

$54

PnL

-$3.6

Record

48%

959-1026 (1985)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$39.99

Value

$45.79

PnL

+$5.81

Record

53%

322-283 (605)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$16.43

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$0.46

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Clippers

Invested

$13.9

Value

$12.41

PnL

-$1.49

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

RLWG<$100

Clippers

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

4293-4089 (8382)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.