Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 242.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 27¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 27

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$33.05

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 27¢

-43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,807

Combined PnL-$77.85

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,401

Combined PnL+$110.9

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$5.4K	$5.1K	-$306.07	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.1¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$624.21
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.7¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$318.14
GA gagarin59ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$64.19	53% 597-533 (1130)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$77.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$13.54
hammyandcheeseCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$45	58% 340-251 (591)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 57.3¢	$844.34	$957.43	+$113.09	62% 3928-2392 (6320)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 53.7¢	$421.23	$458.54	+$37.32	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49¢	$418.54	$414.12	-$4.42	48% 413-442 (855)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 42¢	$420	$350	-$70	53% 5383-4728 (10111)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$217.24	$172.74	-$44.51	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68¢	$87.11	$89.67	+$2.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$130.13	$83.06	-$47.07
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 56.3¢	$35.68	$38.15	+$2.47	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 49¢	$13.39	$13.16	-$0.23	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$9	$8.91	-$0.09	63% 7864-4668 (12532)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.48	-$0.07	53% 6073-5290 (11363)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,386.78

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$306.07

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Under$3,316.2351.1¢-$624.21

Over$2,070.5650.7¢+$318.14

gagarin59ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,850.01

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$64.19

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

Both legs:

Over$1,523.5149¢+$77.73

Under$1,326.549¢-$13.54

hammyandcheeseCTR

Over

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$45

Record

58%

340-251 (591)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$844.34

Value

$957.43

PnL

+$113.09

Record

62%

3928-2392 (6320)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$421.23

Value

$458.54

PnL

+$37.32

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$418.54

Value

$414.12

PnL

-$4.42

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$420

Value

$350

PnL

-$70

Record

53%

5383-4728 (10111)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$217.24

Value

$172.74

PnL

-$44.51

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Over$87.1168¢+$2.56

Under$130.1347¢-$47.07

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$35.68

Value

$38.15

PnL

+$2.47

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$13.39

Value

$13.16

PnL

-$0.23

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

torta.techCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$0.09

Record

63%

7864-4668 (12532)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

6073-5290 (11363)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.