Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 56¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 27

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.3K

Combined PnL

$25.65

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 55.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares17,672

Combined PnL-$39.59

Over8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,143

Combined PnL+$65.24

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$7.8K	$7.6K	-$197.82	54% 15300-12775 (28075)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.6¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$218.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$20.95
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 53¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$45.11	46% 392-454 (846)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$30	47% 2249-2495 (4744)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$24.38	50% 1083-1075 (2158)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$18.86	58% 232-165 (397)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 46¢	$477.48	$493.05	+$15.57	62% 3879-2328 (6207)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 47¢	$470	$475	+$5	53% 5196-4520 (9716)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$352.5	$356.25	+$3.75	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Overavg 44¢	$136.09	$146.92	+$10.83	50% 2174-2185 (4359)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$64.53	$65.66	+$1.13	57% 24239-18661 (42900)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$39.46	$40.49	+$1.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$25.07	$25.17	+$0.1
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$17.73	$17.5	-$0.23	63% 5793-3427 (9220)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$9.3	$9.5	+$0.2	56% 6682-5351 (12033)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.38	+$0.13	55% 2151-1765 (3916)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,837.18

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$197.82

Record

54%

15300-12775 (28075)

Both legs:

Over$5,017.9847.6¢-$218.77

Under$2,819.254.1¢+$20.95

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$4,781.64

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$45.11

Record

46%

392-454 (846)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$2,820

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$30

Record

47%

2249-2495 (4744)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$2,487.16

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$24.38

Record

50%

1083-1075 (2158)

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$18.86

Record

58%

232-165 (397)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$477.48

Value

$493.05

PnL

+$15.57

Record

62%

3879-2328 (6207)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$470

Value

$475

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5196-4520 (9716)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$352.5

Value

$356.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Over

Invested

$136.09

Value

$146.92

PnL

+$10.83

Record

50%

2174-2185 (4359)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$64.53

Value

$65.66

PnL

+$1.13

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

Both legs:

Under$39.4651.2¢+$1.03

Over$25.0747.3¢+$0.1

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.73

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$0.23

Record

63%

5793-3427 (9220)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

6682-5351 (12033)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

2151-1765 (3916)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.