Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$1.4K
-$16.22
51.1¢ → 50¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KK kkpay19888 | Overavg 51¢ | $898.62 | $881 | -$8.81 | 53% 501-436 (937) |
FF ff3364 | Overavg 51¢ | $456.96 | $448 | -$4.48 | 50% 770-764 (1534) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 52.9¢ | $53.96 | $50.98 | -$2.98 | 54% 15456-12940 (28396) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 47.1¢ | $44.77 | $45 | +$0.15 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $10.2 | -$0.1 | 56% 6694-5364 (12058) |
Invested
$898.62
Value
$881
PnL
-$8.81
Record
53%
501-436 (937)
Invested
$456.96
Value
$448
PnL
-$4.48
Record
50%
770-764 (1534)
Invested
$53.96
Value
$50.98
PnL
-$2.98
Record
54%
15456-12940 (28396)
Invested
$44.77
Value
$45
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
24505-18852 (43357)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.2
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
56%
6694-5364 (12058)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.