Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 57¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$248.48

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 57.5¢

+32% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,120

Combined PnL+$205

Over3 traders

Total Value$293.77

Total Shares454

Combined PnL+$43.49

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$6.3K	$5.7K	-$543.71	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.8¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$307.8
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$3.7K	$2.9K	-$851.52
VeryLucky888	Underavg 43.3¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$199.19	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$396.77	$440.49	+$43.72	48% 413-442 (855)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$285.15	$343.86	+$58.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.5¢	$111.62	$96.64	-$14.99
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 53.2¢	$193.62	$240.24	+$46.62	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 45¢	$31.95	$35.5	+$3.55	50% 3628-3599 (7227)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 44.5¢	$26.28	$29.5	+$3.22	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$30.16	$29.28	-$0.88	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$26.5	$24.25	-$2.25	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 53.5¢	$3.43	$2.46	-$0.97	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,293.34

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$543.71

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Over$2,567.7755.8¢+$307.8

Under$3,725.5748.6¢-$851.52

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,294.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$199.19

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$396.77

Value

$440.49

PnL

+$43.72

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Both legs:

Over$285.1551¢+$58.71

Under$111.6244.5¢-$14.99

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$193.62

Value

$240.24

PnL

+$46.62

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$31.95

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$3.55

Record

50%

3628-3599 (7227)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$26.28

Value

$29.5

PnL

+$3.22

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.16

Value

$29.28

PnL

-$0.88

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.5

Value

$24.25

PnL

-$2.25

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.43

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.97

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.