Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 49¢ · $979 held · ended Oct 27

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$979.19

Combined PnL

$75.22

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 48.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$748.31

Total Shares1,294

Combined PnL+$73.87

Under3 traders

Total Value$8.97

Total Shares21

Combined PnL+$1.35

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 54¢	$298.49	$364.82	+$66.33	48% 413-442 (855)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 53.4¢	$224.6	$221.91	-$2.69	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.4¢	$122.93	$127.65	+$4.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$101.67	$94.26	-$7.41
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 53.3¢	$179.74	$183.67	+$3.93	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 47¢	$162.48	$167.66	+$5.19	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 57.2¢	$33.73	$32.16	-$1.58	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.6	$4.5	+$0.9	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.4	$3	+$0.6	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 27¢	$1.62	$1.47	-$0.15	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$298.49

Value

$364.82

PnL

+$66.33

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$224.6

Value

$221.91

PnL

-$2.69

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Over$122.9353.4¢+$4.72

Under$101.6748¢-$7.41

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$179.74

Value

$183.67

PnL

+$3.93

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$162.48

Value

$167.66

PnL

+$5.19

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.73

Value

$32.16

PnL

-$1.58

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$3.6

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.