Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$85.97
53¢ → 54¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 52.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$58.31 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $1.1K | $703.91 | -$393.13 | 53% 9987-8708 (18695) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $954.24 | $516.88 | -$437.36 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56.5¢ | $142.8 | $187.03 | +$44.23 | |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $66.78 | $64.66 | -$2.12 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $68.44 | $62.22 | -$6.22 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $62.25 | $61.62 | -$0.63 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $58.7 | $40.03 | -$18.68 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $11.97 | $11.97 | +$0 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$1,210.89
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$58.31
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$1,097.04
Value
$703.91
PnL
-$393.13
Record
53%
9987-8708 (18695)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.78
Value
$64.66
PnL
-$2.12
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
poshposh<$100Invested
$68.44
Value
$62.22
PnL
-$6.22
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
Invested
$62.25
Value
$61.62
PnL
-$0.63
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
Invested
$58.7
Value
$40.03
PnL
-$18.68
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.97
Value
$11.97
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.