Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 39¢ · $403 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
$402.97
$69.79
34.9¢ → 38.5¢
+10% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $200 | $190 | -$10 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Underavg 29¢ | $98.02 | $169 | +$70.98 | 49% 1092-1130 (2222) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $17.8 | $23 | +$5.2 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $9.27 | $12.24 | +$2.98 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $3.72 | $6 | +$2.28 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $1.76 | $1.65 | -$0.12 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 33.8¢ | $2.61 | $1.08 | -$1.53 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$200
Value
$190
PnL
-$10
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$98.02
Value
$169
PnL
+$70.98
Record
49%
1092-1130 (2222)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$23
PnL
+$5.2
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$9.27
Value
$12.24
PnL
+$2.98
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
Invested
$3.72
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.28
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
Invested
$1.76
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$0.12
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.61
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$1.53
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.