Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Pacers (86%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bucks (-1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (50%) · Bucks at 14¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 27

Bucks14¢Pacers86¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$171.86

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 14.5¢

-67% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bucks14%

Pacers86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,540

Combined PnL-$174.1

Pacers3 traders

Total Value$383.25

Total Shares706

Combined PnL+$2.24

Bucks — 50%Pacers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bucksavg 45.2¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$45.35	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52.2¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$323.81
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 45.2¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$369.16
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pacersavg 60.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$34.15	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 60.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$19.15
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 37¢	$555	$570	+$15
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bucksavg 41.7¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$185.13	48% 413-442 (855)
GA gagarin59CTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$786.72	$794.75	+$8.03	53% 597-533 (1130)
JU justaluckydude	Pacersavg 53.3¢	$341.47	$342.94	+$1.46	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
GH ghorrock<$100	Pacersavg 59¢	$37.05	$20.81	+$0.39	57% 12531-9470 (22001)
HRTrading<$100	Pacersavg 49¢	$19.11	$19.5	+$0.39	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Bucksavg 38¢	$9.5	$12.5	+$3	50% 6607-6589 (13196)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2,957.35

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$45.35

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Pacers$1,316.0552.2¢+$323.81

Bucks$1,641.345.2¢-$369.16

Anon455ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,630.09

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$34.15

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Pacers$1,075.0960.9¢+$19.15

Bucks$55537¢+$15

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,201.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$185.13

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

gagarin59CTR

Bucks

Invested

$786.72

Value

$794.75

PnL

+$8.03

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

justaluckydude

Pacers

Invested

$341.47

Value

$342.94

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

ghorrock<$100

Pacers

Invested

$37.05

Value

$20.81

PnL

+$0.39

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

HRTrading<$100

Pacers

Invested

$19.11

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$0.39

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$9.5

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$3

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.