Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Bucks (99%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pacers (-9.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 1.4¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 27

Pacers1¢Bucks99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$-12.2K

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 1.4¢

-97% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bucks 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers1%

Bucks99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers4 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares52,483

Combined PnL$-13.3K

Bucks4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,653

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Pacers — 50%Bucks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pacersavg 50¢	$23.6K	$11.6K	$-12.0K	48% 413-442 (855)
MO mooseborzoii	Bucksavg 49.5¢	$3.3K	$4.3K	+$1.0K	50% 1084-1075 (2159)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pacersavg 51¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$617.82	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 55.5¢	$691.5	$939.87	+$248.37
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 51¢	$1.7K	$800.91	-$866.19
AN Anon455CTR	Pacersavg 49¢	$2.8K	$1.6K	$-1.2K	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
JU justaluckydude	Bucksavg 54.1¢	$146.11	$204	+$57.89	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
TA takeormake<$100	Bucksavg 66.9¢	$98.71	$96.28	-$2.43	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bucksavg 69.4¢	$38.9	$10.06	-$4.65	57% 12546-9489 (22035)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pacersavg 28.9¢	$4.33	$3.68	-$0.66	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Pacersavg 32¢	$2.79	$2.14	-$0.65	59% 29811-20547 (50358)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pacers

Invested

$23,619.98

Value

$11.6K

PnL

$-12.0K

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

mooseborzoii

Bucks

Invested

$3,329.5

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

1084-1075 (2159)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2,358.6

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$617.82

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Both legs:

Bucks$691.555.5¢+$248.37

Pacers$1,667.151¢-$866.19

Anon455CTR

Pacers

Invested

$2,814.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

justaluckydude

Bucks

Invested

$146.11

Value

$204

PnL

+$57.89

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

takeormake<$100

Bucks

Invested

$98.71

Value

$96.28

PnL

-$2.43

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

ghorrock<$100

Bucks

Invested

$38.9

Value

$10.06

PnL

-$4.65

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$4.33

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.66

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$0.65

Record

59%

29811-20547 (50358)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bucks 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3957.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

4057.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.