Spread: Pacers (-8.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (50%) · Bucks at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

Pacers1¢Bucks99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$59.5

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 98.6¢

+63% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers1%

Bucks99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,233

Combined PnL+$475.63

Pacers3 traders

Total Value$928.06

Total Shares3,323

Combined PnL-$535.13

Bucks — 50%Pacers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bucksavg 56.3¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$79.23	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 56.3¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$570.13
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 40.7¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$490.91
JU justaluckydude	Bucksavg 59.4¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$386.79	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
GA gagarin59CTR	Pacersavg 44¢	$1.4K	$910.92	-$520.53	53% 597-533 (1130)
TA takeormake	Bucksavg 65.2¢	$475.64	$561.5	+$85.86	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pacersavg 32.2¢	$268.64	$176.28	-$92.36	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 32.2¢	$239.65	$134.02	-$105.63
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 56.3¢	$28.99	$42.25	+$13.27
FO Forecastication2<$100	Bucksavg 64.9¢	$27.25	$30.24	+$2.99	50% 6676-6669 (13345)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pacersavg 36.5¢	$41.36	$14.89	-$13.04	57% 12546-9489 (22035)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pacersavg 39.1¢	$3.82	$2.25	-$1.57	54% 2299-1927 (4226)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$3,623.52

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$79.23

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Both legs:

Bucks$2,047.8156.3¢+$570.13

Pacers$1,575.7140.7¢-$490.91

justaluckydude

Bucks

Invested

$2,208.56

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$386.79

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

gagarin59CTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,431.45

Value

$910.92

PnL

-$520.53

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

takeormake

Bucks

Invested

$475.64

Value

$561.5

PnL

+$85.86

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Anon455ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$268.64

Value

$176.28

PnL

-$92.36

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

Both legs:

Pacers$239.6532.2¢-$105.63

Bucks$28.9956.3¢+$13.27

Forecastication2<$100

Bucks

Invested

$27.25

Value

$30.24

PnL

+$2.99

Record

50%

6676-6669 (13345)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$41.36

Value

$14.89

PnL

-$13.04

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$3.82

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$1.57

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.