Spread: Pacers (-7.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (83%) · Bucks at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27

Pacers3¢Bucks97¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$10.41

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 97.5¢

+76% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers3%

Bucks97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks5 traders

Total Value$685.94

Total Shares1,298

Combined PnL+$9.43

Pacers1 trader

Total Value$13.84

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$0.99

Bucks — 83%Pacers — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBucks 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrPacers 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bucksavg 60.5¢	$3.9K	$3.5K	-$342.14	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 60.5¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$357.8
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 47.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$15.66
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Bucksavg 60.7¢	$487.14	$476.31	-$10.83	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 43.3¢	$233.45	$258.91	+$25.46
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 60.7¢	$253.69	$217.4	-$36.29
AN Anon455	Bucksavg 54¢	$388.89	$374.49	-$14.4	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
JU justaluckydude	Bucksavg 54.9¢	$161.3	$153.63	-$7.67	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
RN1	Bucksavg 62¢	$97.58	$126.85	+$29.27	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Bucksavg 61¢	$46.37	$47.11	+$0.75	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 38.5¢	$18.85	$25.24	+$6.39
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 61¢	$27.52	$21.88	-$5.64
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Bucksavg 50¢	$30.49	$28.06	+$1.58	48% 413-442 (855)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pacersavg 46.3¢	$52.98	$13.84	+$0.99	57% 12546-9489 (22035)
HRTrading<$100	Bucksavg 40.5¢	$2.27	$2.91	+$0.64	54% 2299-1927 (4226)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$3,857.64

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$342.14

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Both legs:

Bucks$2,557.160.5¢-$357.8

Pacers$1,300.5447.4¢+$15.66

takeormakeARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$487.14

Value

$476.31

PnL

-$10.83

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Both legs:

Pacers$233.4543.3¢+$25.46

Bucks$253.6960.7¢-$36.29

Anon455

Bucks

Invested

$388.89

Value

$374.49

PnL

-$14.4

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

justaluckydude

Bucks

Invested

$161.3

Value

$153.63

PnL

-$7.67

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

RN1

Bucks

Invested

$97.58

Value

$126.85

PnL

+$29.27

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$46.37

Value

$47.11

PnL

+$0.75

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

Both legs:

Pacers$18.8538.5¢+$6.39

Bucks$27.5261¢-$5.64

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Bucks

Invested

$30.49

Value

$28.06

PnL

+$1.58

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$52.98

Value

$13.84

PnL

+$0.99

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

HRTrading<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.64

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBucks 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrPacers 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.